I. No Bells, No Baskets.UniQure (QURE) $47 up Huge. Still Not Out Of The Woods!
II.Replimune (REPL) $11.23. Gains 28% in Sympathy with UniQure. We are now up 417%. Still Not Out of the Woods!
III. Gossamer (GOSS) $24 to $2.00. Then $2.00 to $0.30 in a Day, Now $0.16. Taken Out to Woods and Shot.
IV. GeoVax (GOVX) $1.20. MonkeyPox, Hantavirus and Dengue Fever are all Lurking. Ebola However is Now a Real Threat.
V. Adding Bavarian Nordic (BVRNY) $8.91, to Watch List. Lands $106 Million MonkeyPox Vaccine Order!
No Bells, No Baskets. UniQure Still Not Out Of The Woods!
Jumped 74% on news the FDA will give them another chance, at getting an approval. Repligen (REPL), on our Watchlist, also in line for another chance, jumped 28% In sympathy!
On November 3, 2025 uniQure’s stock plummeted –58% in a single day from a prior close of $68 to close around $34, with even steeper intraday drops. It continued to trend lower in the following weeks/months amid ongoing uncertainty, contributing to the broader decline toward the $18 range.
uniQure disclosed feedback from a pre-BLA meeting where the FDA indicated it no longer viewed the Phase I/II data (compared to external/natural history controls) as adequate primary evidence for a BLA submission under accelerated approval. This was described by the company as a “drastic change” and “surprising” reversal from earlier guidance (including from November 2024). Similar in effect to a ‘kind of’ complete response letter.
Then on June 17, 2026, the FDA indicated that 3-year data from the ongoing Phase I/II study of AMT-130 could serve as the primary basis for a Biologics License Application (BLA) seeking accelerated approval. Woo hoo.
JUNE 17 NEWS: uniQure Announces Plan for BLA Submission for AMT-130 in Huntington’s Disease
“Today’s announcement reflects the outcome we have worked toward throughout our continued regulatory engagement with FDA, and we are deeply grateful for FDA’s genuine commitment to addressing the unmet need of Americans living with Huntington’s disease,” said Matt Kapusta, chief executive officer at uniQure. “The FDA has agreed that our current clinical data can support a near-term BLA submission and has committed to work expeditiously with us to align on the design of the required confirmatory study.”
It’s been five days since the pop and they’re still holding up as this next chart shows. And as a another reminder, they are still waiting on favorable news from the FDA. Most of the street went to “buy” with $65 price targets. We’ll see..
LONGER TERM CHART AND SHARE VOLATILITY
Sometimes looking at bare numbers doesn’t give an investor the true magnitude of Biotech volatility, so we added a dollar amount for color in the chart below.
In sum IN THE PAST TWO YEARS, a 100,000 share investment in uniQure jumped from $380,000 to $1.8 million and then to over $7 million and back down to $880,000 – and then back up to $4.7 million. What the?
We don’t think there is a strategy on Wall Street, nor a seat belt been built strong enough, to prevent a passenger/investor from being ejected from his or her seat in the past two years. How many investors bought at $4 and sold at $8.00 and danced a jig? Answer: most.
Versus a stubborn investor could have turned $380,000 into $7 million, in just 16 months. Who needs AI or Space Rockets!
We’ll file the above story and chart in lesson (or multiple lessons) to be learned.
Replimune (REPL) $11.23. Gains 28% in Sympathy with UniQure. We are now up 417%. Still Not Out of the Woods!
SYMPATHY CHART
SHORT TERM CHART
LONG TERM CHART
Despite all the fun we’ve had over the years, there is nothing riskier, nor potentially rewarding, than Biotech stocks which can drop 70-80% in a single day. Biotech investing, makes crypto bro trading seem like competitive napping.
However the one thing riskier, is investing in any Biotech after an FDA issued CRL or ‘complete response letter.’ Also less than fondly know as a CDL or complete denial letter. We call them the dreaded TFP letter, or thanks for playing, please come back again! Ditto with missing primary endpoints – which is like hitting the edge of a dartboard, not the bullseye, close but not the wall. Close, but no prize.
Of course all of the above is favorable to an SUSAR from the FDA, which is like the dart hitting a bar patron in the back of the head. A ‘Suspected Unexpected Serious Adverse Reaction.’ This is the most critical safety flag in clinical research trial and often triggers an immediate clinical hold (halting the trial) and nobody (very few) trade those stocks.
Investing in ‘broken’ trials is a technique mostly employed by day-traders, who see a broken Biotech stock drop from $20 to $3 in a single hour, then buy hoping for a bounce and flip for $4.00. It’s for those who sit and stare at a screen all day.
JUNE 8TH: We’re Up 360% in Six Weeks. Replimune (REPL).
Gossamer (GOSS) $24 to $2.00. Then $2.00 to $0.30 in a Day, Now $0.16. Taken Out to the Woods and Shot.
A real life example without a happy ending (yet) is Gossamer Bio (GOSS). It recently drifted from near $4.00 to $2.13 (off from $24 high), and then in one day plunged to $0.30 on news that it missed its ‘primary endpoint.’
Some traders bought and flipped a few days later for a quick 100% gain. While they were taken out to the woods and shot, the wound wasn’t fatal. We’re not adding it to the Watch List, but we are monitoring the patient.
At one point Guggenheim, Goldman, Barclays and Cantor Fitzgerald, Leerink all had Gossamer in their back pocket – so if they can pull off a resubmission permission, who knows. We heard HC Wainwright had a ‘buy’ and $5.00 price target as of June 1st, though we have not seen the report.
Wonder what they think they know.
LONG TERM CHART
GOSSOMER BARGAIN HUNTER CHART
GeoVax (GOVX) $1.20. MonkeyPox, HantaVirus and Dengue Fever are all Lurking. Ebola However is Now a Real Threat.
Finished with our Vaccine Stock Watch List. Time to Buy Them Across the Board.
Our favorite small-cap Biotech and news reporting client GeoVax (GOVX), traded nearly 300,000,000 shares in a two week span, during mid-to-late May producing a interim gain of 285%.
The rise took nearly everyone (including us) by surprise. Not so much the price move, but the volume. Over the past couple years, almost routinely, GeoVax has had these power moves because it is a late-stage vaccine player, addressing multi-billion dollar markets. Let’s call them the newest kid on the block.
They’ve actually been around for years – but we are fast approaching (finally) a moment where statistically significant news, non-inferiority type news, compared to Bavarian Nordic’s (BVNRY) MPOX approved vaccine, could be released soon coming from an upcoming head-to-head trial with Bavarian.
GeoVax believes the market for MPOX vaccines to be $2 billion with $1.3 billion classified as an ‘unmet’ need for more vaccine.
Bavarian just announced they got an order for $106,573,670 to supply its MVA-BN® smallpox/mpox vaccine to an undisclosed country in 2026 and 2027. The overall guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at revenue of $798 – $826 million and an EBITDA margin of approximately 28%.
And so we are adding them to the Watch List again!
Adding Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) $8.91, to Watch List.
Volumelicious..where did they all come from?
GeoVax Volume Run
A partial reason for sharing the above charts on QURE and REPL is to open the eyes for traders, exactly what they are really playing with.
It’s all fun and chuckles buying at $2.00 and selling at $4.00 (and profitable) – until the unimaginable happens. Meaning an FDA approval. We won’t go into the odds of approval (which we deem as unpredictable) but we can share some basic math, which is actually potential POST approval math on a price-to-sales metric.
The most common belief for the most recent move was related to MonkeyPox (MPOX). Just basic news about MPOX and Ebola spreading, a new variant and it’s potential to further spread. That’s all it took.
GeoVax (GOVX) and Monkeypox (MPOX)
GeoVax has in our opinion the most advanced and potentially approvable vaccine, which is soon entering a critical Phase III trial, using a similar platform as Bavarian Nordic (BVRNY) which we have covered extensively over the past few years. Bavarian has a monopoly and the only approved MonkeyPox vaccine on the market. And we know exactly how much of it they sell. call it plenty enough to go around for two competitor’s with one (GeoVax) based in the good old USA!
Bavaria just got an order from “undisclosed countries” for $106 million..
Note also, Bavarian Nordic was on our Watch List from $7.60 to $12.25, when they received a takeout valuing it at $3.1 billion. The deal later was voted down and it now trades at $9.18.
Following scientific advice from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the U.S. FDA, GeoVax plans to initiate a single, pivotal Phase III immunobridging study designed to demonstrate immune comparability to currently approved MVA vaccines.
GeoVax Labs price target lowered to $10 from $14 at Roth Capital
The EMA’s guidance allows GeoVax to bypass earlier-stage trials for market authorization in the EU, drastically accelerating the path to potential commercialization.
POST APPROVAL MATH
Using simple math, we believe GeoVax investors will look at only two things, post approval. No science degree needed. We also call this “don’t sell too soon after approval math.”
#1. The size of the ‘un-met’ need market of $1.3 billion, for a MPOX vaccine. The total market is estimated at $2 billion.(Read details for yourself in the link to the PowerPoint below.)
#2. The size of the GeoVax’s market cap, which is just shy of $10 million, with 7,369,243 shares outstanding.
Here’s the fun part. Again, no projections, no predictions, no expectations of percentage of the market share. We’re not addressing profitability, or time to capture market share. The primary dominator is Price-to-Sales, the most simple equation we can come up with.
Also out of the blue, the other denominator is 50 million shares outstanding, to help fund the Phase III trial. So a total of an additional 42,630,757 assumed shares to be issued.
Using our $1.3B “unmet need” figure as the total addressable revenue for a hypothetical sole-play MPOX vaccine company, here’s how market cap math typically works for a biotech/pharma company at varying stages of commercial readiness:
The Revenue Multiple Framework
Pharma/biotech companies with a single approved vaccine product in a government procurement-driven market tend to trade at roughly 3x–8x revenue once commercial, or on a probability-weighted forward basis pre-commercialization. Bavarian Nordic, as the comp, has historically traded in that range.
So the rough math on 100% capture of $1.3B:
- At 3x P/S → ~$3.9B market cap = $78 per share
- At 5x P/S → ~$6.5B market cap = $130
- At 8x P/S → ~$10.4B market cap = $182
We asked AI Claude for a P/S range and they came up with: - At 3x P/S → ~$3.9B market cap = $78
(Low-end commercial biotech multiple) - At 5x P/S → ~$6.5B market cap = $130
(Sector median multiple) - At 7x P/S → ~$9.1B market cap = $182
(High-end specialty / orphan-like multiple) - At 10x P/S → ~$13B market cap = $260
- At 15x P/S → ~$19.5B market cap = $390
(Both high-growth premium band)
This isn’t simply hypothetical, it’s simply math. It would be hypothetical is we made assumption of getting 100% market share. We make no assumptions on either approvability nor market share, or even that that are able to raise the funding necessary to complete the trail, which amount is listed in the link to the PowerPoint below.
There are many financial websites with P/S ratio examples. Here is just one:
Valuing a Biotech Business (DealStream)
Valuing a biotech business is a complex endeavor that blends science, finance, and market dynamics. Investors and acquirers often rely on “rules of thumb” to triangulate a ballpark figure before engaging in detailed due diligence. These heuristics save time, set expectations, and provide sanity checks against more rigorous models. While no single shortcut captures every nuance, a collection of widely accepted multipliers and phase‐based indicators can help advisors, entrepreneurs, and investors quickly gauge a company’s worth relative to peers and recent deals.
Stage-Based Valuation Multiples
One of the most popular heuristics assigns a benchmark value per development phase. Preclinical assets often trade at roughly $3–5 million per candidate. Companies with a successful Phase I program might command $10–15 million per asset. Phase II proof-of-concept boosts that to $20–50 million, depending on clinical data quality and indication. Phase III assets or products nearing FDA approval can reach $100–200 million apiece. These rules scale with the complexity of the indication (e.g., oncology vs. rare disease) and the size of the target patient population.
Revenue Multiples
For biotech companies with marketed products, revenue multiples become a key rule of thumb. Trailing twelve-month revenues (TTM) are typically valued at 3–7× for specialty pharma franchises, and up to 10–15× for high-growth, orphan‐drug leaders. A marketed enzyme replacement therapy with consistent $50 million annual sales might thus be worth $150–350 million. Multiples skew higher when growth rates exceed 20% annually, or when the therapy commands premium pricing with limited competition.
GEOVAX MONKEYPOX POWERPOINT
June 1st: GeoVax (GOVX) Conference Call and Transcript.
May 26th: GeoVax (GOVX) & Monkeypox (MPOX) PowerPoint.
May 21st: GeoVax (GOVX) Surges 256%, With 207 Million Shares Trading!
May 4th: GeoVax (GOVX) Surges 51% on Massive Volume Spike. (traded 4 million shares)
April 24th: Report: AI Powered Review on GeoVax (GOVX) $1.15
April 23rd: GeoVax (GOVX) $1.14 to Watch List.
Adding Bavarian Nordic (BVRNY) $8.91, to Watch List.
Lands $106 Million MonkeyPox Vaccine Order!
$106,573,670 to be exact.
COPENHAGEN, Denmark, – Bavarian Nordic A/S announced the award of a government contract valued over $106,573,670 to supply its MVA-BN® smallpox/mpox vaccine to an undisclosed country in 2026 and 2027.
HMM. Why the secret? We’ll have to ask AI to get to the bottom of this. The target GeoVax has on them just got a whole lot bigger!
While deliveries under this contract will start in 2026, the majority of the revenue will be recognized in 2027. Bavarian Nordic has now secured contracts in the Public Preparedness business in 2026 of approximately $319 million, an increase of approximately $29 million compared to the level previously announced.
For the full year 2026, the Company still anticipates revenue from Public Preparedness to reach $333 – $362 million. The overall guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at revenue of $798 – $826 million and an EBITDA margin of approximately 28%.
GIGANTIC ORDER NEWS RELEASE: READ MORE
PREVIOUS WRITEUPS
Aug 27, 2025: Our 4th Billion Dollar Takeover! Bavarian Nordic (BVRNY) $12.25, gains 149% After Adding to Watch Lists. Say Auf Wiedersehen!
April 1st, 2025: Adding Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) to Watch List $7.36. Freeze Dries its MPOX Vaccine!
May 4th, 2022: Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) Bags $119 Million Order from Joe Biden.
Aug 19,2020: Look What We Found. A Bavarian Cure for the Common Cold and CoronaVirus Play!
Forward-Looking Statements
This report contains forward-looking statements regarding GeoVax’s business plans. The words “believe,” “look forward to,” “may,” “estimate,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “should,” “plan,” “could,” “target,” “potential,” “is likely,” “will,” “expect” and similar expressions, as they relate to us, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends that we believe may affect our financial condition, results of operations, business strategy and financial needs. Actual results may differ materially from those included in these statements due to a variety of factors, including whether: GeoVax is able to obtain acceptable results from ongoing or future clinical trials of its investigational products, GeoVax’s immuno-oncology products and preventative vaccines can provoke the desired responses, and those products or vaccines can be used effectively, GeoVax’s viral vector technology adequately amplifies immune responses to cancer antigens, GeoVax can develop and manufacture its immuno-oncology products and preventative vaccines with the desired characteristics in a timely manner, GeoVax’s immuno-oncology products and preventative vaccines will be safe for human use, GeoVax’s vaccines will effectively prevent targeted infections in humans, GeoVax’s immuno-oncology products and preventative vaccines will receive regulatory approvals necessary to be licensed and marketed, GeoVax raises required capital to complete development, there is development of competitive products that may be more effective or easier to use than GeoVax’s products, GeoVax will be able to enter into favorable manufacturing and distribution agreements, and other factors, over which GeoVax has no control.
Further information on our risk factors is contained in our periodic reports on Form 10-Q and Form 10-K that we have filed and will file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statement made by us herein speaks only as of the date on which it is made. Factors or events that could cause our actual results to differ may emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict all of them. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as may be required by law. GeoVax is a client of Institutional Analyst, the publisher of the Biotech Stock Review and has been retained with a combination of cash and equity for ongoing progress, news coverage and research reporting for five thousand dollars per month.
#GOSS, #REPL, #QURE, #GOVX
