Been quite sometime since we had Watch List company taken out, at over $1 Billion but here we go again. With our 4th billion dollar takeover — we now have a Superfecta — as they say at the racetrack. Total gains, $27.7 billion.
Bavarian, specializes in vaccines for mpox, smallpox and other infectious diseases. As noted by Bavarian Nordic’s chairman Luc Debruyne, “If there’s an outbreak, then the share price goes temporarily up, but then afterwards, it goes down again to the base.”
Their MVA mpox vaccine we might add, is similar, to the GeoVax (GOVX) MVA mpox vaccine, which is in late clinical trials.
- Immunomedics (IMMU) $3 to $87 up 2,800%, a gain of $20.7 billion. Acquired by Gilead Sciences (GILD)
September of 2016 – September of 2020 - Dicerna (DRNA) $3.30 to $38.25 up 1,175%, a gain of $2.9 billion. Acquired by Novo Nordisk (NVO).
September of 2017 to November of 2021 - Provention Bio (PRVB) $4.60 to $25 up 443%, a gain of $2.8 billion. Acquired by Sanofi (SNY).
July of 2022 to March of 2023 - Bavarian Nordic (BVRNY) $7.60 to $12.25 up 84%, a gain of $1.3 billion. To be acquired by Nordic Capital and Permira.
August of 2020 and April 2025 August of 2025
Net, net to peak gains, we were up 66% in 2020 with Bavarian and an additional up 84% in 2025, for a combined potential gain of 149%. Not bad..
Note the deal is not officially done and anything can happen. While unlikely the deal could fall apart, it happens. They need a 90% vote and Danish pension fund ATP, which holds a 10% stake in Bavarian, told Reuters that it had no interest in accepting the offer.
In the 80’s while at Drexel Burnham, we used a strategy called ‘risk arbitrage’ that enabled us to profit from the difference in the current trading price of a takeover target’s stock and the announced takeover price. So if a takeover was announced at $22 and the stock was trading at $20 – we’d buy and bet the deal gets done to make $2.00, or that it gets done at an even higher price.
In the 2020’s and beyond, when a deal is announced, we do no longer look to tender – we sell. If this deal falls apart – the downside is significant – like back to $7.00! So it might be best to sell and watch from the Bavarian Alps.
Here’s what happened according to Reuters. Nordic Capital, Permira make $3 billion offer for vaccine maker Bavarian Nordic.
LIVE QUOTE
LONG TERM CHART
Now you might be wondering why would we post (below) both Bavarians most recent quarterly report and PowerPoint? Why would anyone waste time reading on what seems to be like a minimal upside and done deal?
For one, it’s one of the best quarterly reports that’s been authored. Two is because we believe upon approval (assuming approval) of the GeoVax (GOVX) MVA based MPOX treatment, that GeoVax will be the US based (which Kennedy would like) competitor to Bavarian’s MVA based MPOX treatment.
Reading the Bavarian report will give you clues as to how big the MPOX vaccine market is. While MPOX news comes and goes, Bavarian has made $100’s of millions selling its MPOX to the US government, which stockpiles the vaccine “just in case” for now.
GeoVax acquired rights from the US National Institute of Health (NIH) in 2023, to develop and commercialize MVA for use as a vaccine against mpox and smallpox.
With a market cap of only $16 million versus Bavarian’s $2.9 billion market cap – we believe GOVX is worthy of deep study. Here is an archive of past posts on GeoVax:
About Bavarian Nordic
Bavarian Nordic is a global vaccine company with a mission to improve health and save lives through innovative vaccines. We are a preferred supplier of mpox and smallpox vaccines to governments to enhance public health preparedness and have a leading portfolio of travel vaccines.
For more information, visit www.bavarian-nordic.com
Forward-looking statements
This announcement includes forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of our control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements concerning our plans, objectives, goals, future events, performance and/or other information that is not historical information. All such forward-looking statements are expressly qualified by these cautionary statements and any other cautionary statements which may accompany the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances after the date made, except as required by law.
