What an Entertaining Week!
..and it’s only Thursday.
LIVE QUOTE
(MAY 18TH)
(MAY 21ST)
So Where Does That Leave us Today?
Yes, it was a pleasant surprise to see GeoVax trade from Friday’s close of $1.23, to Monday’s intraday high of $4.39 on 207 million shares, or for better effect, 207,000,000 shares, for a momentary gain of 256% with no news, until about 2:30 late in the trading day. Most longer-term investors spent the morning just wishing for “someone to hold my hand.”
Sadly there is no such hand holding service on Wall Street. Of some comfort, was a news item weeks earlier (April 17th) stating:
“Roth Capital lowered the firm’s price target on GeoVax Labs (GOVX) to $10 from $14 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. GeoVax ended Q4 with limited cash and is advancing key programs, including a Phase 3 trial for GEO-MVA expected to begin in 2H26 and continued progress for GEO-CM04S1 in immunocompromised patients, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company also plans to initiate a 2H26 trial of Gedeptin in combination with pembrolizumab for head and neck cancer, following encouraging external study results, the firm says.“
There are two rules to remember when investing in biotech which we’ve been doing since 80’s (yes, over 40 years). Back then we were experimenting with clients money, in an experimental sector called biotech as a broker, for Drexel Burnham in Biogen. Good times.
- Rule #1. Expect extreme volatility.
- Rule #2. Expect ongoing financings, until they have a drug or vaccine to sell, or a ‘partner’ shows up at the door and offers them a few hundred million (or even a billion) to help them cross the finish line.
The early performance of Biogen shares was highly volatile and defined by a long period of stagnation before delivering explosive wealth for early patient investors. Moving from its initial hype into a multi-year “biotech winters,” the stock hit many deep lows before turning around in the late-1990s.
This is how Biogen traded back then. Some call the volatility gut-wrenching. It dropped from $4.50 to $2.50 from January to July (yes we were there) before heading to over $438. A $45,000 investment at the time, melting to $25,000 in a few months will of course, test anyone’s resolve.
On the flip side for those who manned the ship in hurricane conditions, the $45,000 which fell to $25,000 later grew to $4.3 million in twenty years (or $4,380,000 for effect). And no, we weren’t there for that.
Just Saying..
As we said in our last write-up when GeoVax jumped from $1.00 to $1.50 on an eye-brow raising 4 million shares (4,000,000 for effect):
(May 4th).Why is this important if we’re not traders? It indicates to us that there is truly an army of traders who have been and continue to be active followers of GeoVax. Ready and willing to pounce, when the timing is right.
What it indicates to us that if this much volume and price movement can occur on news which is perceptually great (such as clinical trial interim data, or the early advancement of a virus), we can just imagine what will happen if they release actually great news, such as a partnership, EMA endorsement, or if a virus like MonkeyPox or Nipah advances to the uh-oh stage, “we better load up on toilet paper and hand sanitizer again!”
MAY 4th: GeoVax (GOVX) Surges 51% on Massive Volume Spike.
April 24th: Adding GeoVax to Watch List
April 24th: Report: AI Powered Review on GeoVax (GOVX) $1.15
Merlin Trader: Ebola Preparedness Trade: GOVX, CODX and RDHL.
So Where Does That Leave Us.
Basically the same spot we’ve been at the whole time we’ve been following the Company. With the the exception that we are closer to the launch of two trials (which need to be funded, hopefully by a partner). One trial with GeoVax vs. Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) and one with GeoVax combined with Merck’s (MRK) Keytruda vs. Keytruda alone.
Keytruda, if you don’t know generated $31.6 billion in global gross sales (in just one year). It is the undisputed No. 1 best-selling pharmaceutical brand worldwide.
We would recommend ANYONE who is reading this, to read all about Merck investing in other companies to ‘enhance’ the performance of Keytruda. They have an army of med-acquisition experts who are on a constant hunt for things that can make Keytruda better. It’s just that simple. It’s called a combo-therapy.
Ask your favorite AI, “Please give me a summary list of deals completed by Merck designed to increase the efficacy of Keytruda, listing name, amount invested including milestone payments and date.”
Big Phama can show up anytime from pre-clinical to late in Phase III trials, or even after approval – when it is the most expensive, but totally (mostly) de-risked.
Merck has aggressively pursued acquisitions and strategic equity investments to construct a “patent fortress” and clinical barrier around Keytruda. These deals focus heavily on combination therapies (pairing Keytruda with outside novel mechanisms) to maximize the blockbuster’s efficacy in harder-to-treat cancers and sustain its market dominance ahead of its 2028 loss of patent exclusivity.
Here’s a few ‘out of the blue’ deal examples, that will give you pause the next time you want to flip GeoVax for a quick 100% gain, not that’s there’s anything wrong wit dat:
- LaNova Medicines. $588 million in upfront cash, with potential milestone payments reaching up to $2.7 billion.
- Moderna. $250 million to exercise an option for a 50/50 profit-and-cost-sharing partnership. This built upon a strategic relationship initialized in 2016 with a $200 million upfront investment.
- Harpoon Therapeutics. Merck fully acquired Harpoon for $680 million in cash.
- Kelun-Biotech. Merck entered a monumental multi-program collaboration worth up to $9.3 billion in developmental milestones.
- Daiichi Sankyo. Merck committed a massive $4 billion upfront payment as part of a deeper multi-billion dollar oncology alliance.
Harpoon Therapeutics
We’ll tell more about the Harpoon story in a later post, because it’s quite the comeback story!
The stock plummeted 61.18% in 2021 and another 91.01% in 2022.
It hit a low of $0.55 in May of 2023. It was hemorrhaging cash like most biotech’s and risked running out of money. To survive, management aggressively cut costs. In an all hands on deck effort, they paused less promising pipeline drugs. They laid off staff. They even subleased all of their expensive office and lab spaces at their main facility.
At the the high-profile ESMO Congress in October 2023, Harpoon presented updated interim data. The drug demonstrated a 35% confirmed response rate across multiple aggressive tumor types, including multiple patients experiencing complete remission. For a notoriously difficult-to-treat cancer, Wall Street realized Harpoon had a potential blockbuster drug on its hands.
In November of 2023, they did a $100 million raise (no word if the laid off staff came back) to fund Phase II trials. The funding completely eliminated Harpoon’s bankruptcy risk, giving them years of financial breathing room and triggering a massive short squeeze as bearish traders rushed to buy back shares (which later proved to be a good idea for them).
In December of 2023 the Friday before the Merck acquisition announcement, Harpoon closed at $10.55 per share. Merck agreed to buy the company at $23.00 per share in cash, representing an overnight premium of 118%. Investors who bought at $0.55 and flipped for a 100% gain in summer of 2023, were sick to their stomach! $0.55 to $23 and they had it, but let it go.
Merck Pays $680M for Struggling Cancer Biotech Harpoon
Next time you feel the need for someone to hold your hand, come back to this page. Print these tables, cut them out, and tape them near your computer lol.
WOO HOO
PAST MERCK COMBO DEALS
Oh and before we forget! Keytruda isn’t the only player in Checkpoint Inhibitors (which is what Keytruda is). Each of the following companies below have their own army of med-acquisition experts, who are also on a constant hunt for things that can make their Inhibitor equal to or better than Keytruda, and grab some of Merck’s Inhibitor market share. These experts are ultra-competitive big-boys (think Pharma Warriors), who have in the past made the decision to write a multi-hundred million check, after a brief 30-minute board meeting.
Can you just imagine if Bristol Meyers swooped in to cut a deal with GeoVax ahead of Merck for its Opdivo? How pissed would they be? More then a few med-acquisition experts heads would roll on that news. As billions are at stake here.*
LEADING CHECKPOINT INHIBITORS
Heads Will Roll..
*None of the above scenarios are endorsed by management, just our imagination from years of doing this.
RECENT NEWS
GeoVax Comments on Escalating Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak
GeoVax Highlights Importance of Domestic Vaccine Manufacturing (hint, GeoVax is domestic)
GeoVax Announces $3 Million Private Placement Financing Priced At-the-Market. (existing institutional investors show continued faith)
Zacks Upgrades to Buy. (AI slop but we’ll take it!)
GeoVax Labs price target lowered to $10 from $14 at Roth Capital.
MONKEY POX | SMALL POX VACCINE POWER POINT
MUST READ FOR BOTH TRADERS AND LONG-TERM INVESTORS
Forward-Looking Statements
This release contains forward-looking statements regarding GeoVax’s business plans. The words “believe,” “look forward to,” “may,” “estimate,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “should,” “plan,” “could,” “target,” “potential,” “is likely,” “will,” “expect” and similar expressions, as they relate to us, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends that we believe may affect our financial condition, results of operations, business strategy and financial needs. Actual results may differ materially from those included in these statements due to a variety of factors, including whether: GeoVax is able to obtain acceptable results from ongoing or future clinical trials of its investigational products, GeoVax’s immuno-oncology products and preventative vaccines can provoke the desired responses, and those products or vaccines can be used effectively, GeoVax’s viral vector technology adequately amplifies immune responses to cancer antigens, GeoVax can develop and manufacture its immuno-oncology products and preventative vaccines with the desired characteristics in a timely manner, GeoVax’s immuno-oncology products and preventative vaccines will be safe for human use, GeoVax’s vaccines will effectively prevent targeted infections in humans, GeoVax’s immuno-oncology products and preventative vaccines will receive regulatory approvals necessary to be licensed and marketed, GeoVax raises required capital to complete development, there is development of competitive products that may be more effective or easier to use than GeoVax’s products, GeoVax will be able to enter into favorable manufacturing and distribution agreements, and other factors, over which GeoVax has no control.
Further information on our risk factors is contained in our periodic reports on Form 10-Q and Form 10-K that we have filed and will file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statement made by us herein speaks only as of the date on which it is made. Factors or events that could cause our actual results to differ may emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict all of them. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as may be required by law.GeoVax is a client of Institutional Analyst, the publisher of the Biotech Stock Review and has been retained with a combination of cash and equity for ongoing progress, news coverage and research reporting for five thousand dollars per month.
Company Contact:
info@geovax.com
678-384-7220
Media Contact:
Jessica Starman
media@geovax.com
