Both a bad day and a Good day for Psychedelics. The Psychedelic Sector Holds Firm.
Atai was founded in 2018 and went public in June 2021, raising net proceeds of $231.6 million at $15 per share. The funding signaled to us, that unlike the Stem Cell sector, Wall Street was cozying up to Psychedelics big time. We didn’t like it, perse at $19, but it did tell us to begin to follow the sector! (Follow it down that is lol.)
That’s it. $225 Million Raised by Atai (ATAI) Gets us Interested in the Psychedelics Sector.
It traded great out of the chute, hitting $22 before a water torture slide to $2.66, where we felt ‘enough is enough’ and added it to the 2023 Watch List last week. Knife juggling, bargain hunters, that we are.
First note this from an analyst report.
“If successful, there are ~300 million individuals who suffer from depression worldwide with approximately one-third resistant to front-line treatment. With only two therapies approved – Spravato and Eli Lilly’s (LLY) selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor [SSRI] Prozac-Zyprexa combo Symbyax (now generic) – the opportunity is significant with antidepressant sales expected to exceed $8 billion by 2025.”
Worth a shot — well, Hal yeah.
Atai was founded in 2018 and went public in June 2021, raising net proceeds of $231 million at $15 per share. Market cap at the peak, $3.6 billion. Market cap at $2.66 — $249 million!
So in essence we dodged at $3.3 billion loss.
So why not at $2.66, why not..
But then this, proving our timing while at times is great, it is far from impeccable — and why we never bet on FDA outcomes. We only bet how good things might become, post-approval.
ATAI Life Sciences’ Drug Trial For Depression Fails To Deliver Expected Results, Stock Plunges 44%.
How the Sector Fared This Dark Day
The Market Caps Across the Board Though, Have Shriveled
Recent street price targets range from $10 to $15 (see below).
Scrutinizing Psychedelic Stocks (Thank God there’s a transcript to this grueling one hour podcast that can’t be sped up. Who listens to these things anyway.)
Atai Life Sciences N.V.: A First Take, Buy (June 2022) $3.74 (dated but worth reading)
Math Over Myth: ATAI & Cathie Wood’s Reverse Midas Touch
So our verdict..we’re sure you’re dying to know.
We’ve only done this a handful of times in the past 20-30 years, but we’re doubling down on ATAI @ $1.80. So when we come out with our list of Top 10 Psychedelics, ATAI will hold two spots. Rationale forthcoming other than to say they have plenty more shots on goal.
But first we’ll have to go back to drawing board on the rest of our picks, after this disappointing depression related news.
Not so much as it is related to ATAI, but rather news that Psychedelics in general may not as easily obliterate the current market for ineffective anti-depressants, as we had previously assumed (dreamt). Dang. We thought it was a shoe in, with what we’ve read from numerous John Hopkins studies.
Current list: ATAI (ATAI) $2.66 and Compass Pathways (CMPS) $8.03, Pharmather (PHRRF) $0.04, Silo Pharma (SILO) $3.50, and Revive Therapeutics (RVVTF) $0.08 to the Top 10 Psychedelic Watch List.
RELATED: The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck: A Counterintuitive Approach to Living a Good Life
*Garnered November 11th, 2023.
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Senior Director, External Affairs
PR@atai.life | IR@atai.life