Our 6th Billion Gainer. We’re Saying Auf Wiedersehen!
Eli Lilly (LLY) has agreed to pay $6.75 a share in cash upfront ($2.8 billion) – with an additional $2.50 a share in contingent value rights (CVRs) or $9.25 total, tied to critical clinical and regulatory milestones. The crown jewel of the deal is BPL-003, a Phase III-ready, fast-acting intranasal formulation of 5-MeO-DMT designed to treat treatment-resistant depression in single, two-hour clinic sessions.
A single two-hour session?
One of our long-time fears about the sector, was that many psychedelics are the antithesis of the tried and true, drugs-forever (or revenues until death), business model of big pharma. So no billion dollar acquisitions. So this is big – no huge – news for the sector. We doubt it will ever go back to its heyday of late 2021 – but we will are looking at some of the small cap survivors that could 3-4X with a little bit of luck.
In the ‘mania’ there were over 50 publicly traded psychedelic players, 6 or 7 psychedelic stock websites (including ours), a couple psychedelic indexes and two psychedelic ETF’s (one folded). We folded our website (luckily) in 2021 just months after launching, but returned adding ATAI at $1.80 in 2023 and Compass Pathways (CMPS) at $2.26 in 2025 (now $12.50) to the Watchlist.
Investors selling ATAI here, leave a potential 24% on the table, but that could be 4-7 years away so as we say Auf Wiedersehen!
RECENT CHART
Sixth Billion Dollar Gainer
- Immunomedics (IMMU) $3 to $87 up 2,800%, a gain of $20.7 billion. Acquired by Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- Dicerna (DRNA) $3.30 to $38.25 up 1,175%, a gain of $2.9 billion. Acquired by Novo Nordisk (NVO).
- Provention Bio (PRVB) $4.60 to $25 up 443%, a gain of $2.8 billion. Acquired by Sanofi (SNY).
- Bavarian Nordic (BVRNY) $7.60 to $12.25 up 84%, a gain of $1.3 billion. Deal fell through but we said Auf Wiedersehen!
- ATAI Beckley (ATAI) $1.18 to $7.22 up 301%, a gain of $2.5 billion. In the works with Eli Lilly (LLY). Still in play but we said Auf Wiedersehen!
- Compass Pathways (CMPS) $2.36 to $12.35 up 446%, a gain of $1.4 billion. Still in play.
And one so close.. - Replimune (REPL) $2.17 to $10.07 up 360%, a gain of $657 million. Still in play but we said Auf Wiedersehen!
LIVE QUOTE
The Wild Ride Part
QUICK WRAP
Let’s do a quick wrap up of what’s happened, and what will (may) happen once the deal closes. Meaning how to participate in the contingent value rights.
What’s actually happening: Lilly agreed to buy AtaiBeckley for $6.75 in cash at closing plus one non-transferable contingent value right (CVR) for up to an additional $2.50 in cash per share. So $6.75 + $2.50 = $9.25 total potential consideration — that’s THE number, confirmed. The CVR pays out only if milestones hit: $1.00 per share upon initiation of a Phase 3 clinical trial of VLS-01 prior to the fourth anniversary of closing, $0.50 per share upon U.S. regulatory approval and DEA rescheduling of BPL-003 prior to the fifth anniversary of closing, and $1.00 per share upon U.S. regulatory approval and DEA rescheduling of VLS-01 prior to the seventh anniversary of closing. Deal is expected to close in the third quarter, subject to approval by AtaiBeckley stockholders and satisfaction of other customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals.
There isn’t a “shareholders of record as of X date” situation the way a dividend works. There’s no snapshot date floating out there independent of the deal. The mechanic is: you have to still be a holder of AtaiBeckley shares when the merger actually closes. At closing, every outstanding share converts into $6.75 cash + one CVR. If you sell before closing, you get whatever the market price is that day — you don’t get a CVR, because you’re no longer a shareholder when the conversion happens. If you hold through closing, your shares get converted and you get both pieces automatically.
So the “record date” language, should really be framed as the merger’s effective/closing date — not a discrete calendar date announced in advance (though one will eventually get set once shareholder and regulatory approvals clear, expected Q3 2026). There’s isn’t a specific date on the calendar right now, since there isn’t one yet.
A few other things worth considering..
- The CVR is non-transferable — can’t be sold separately, it just rides along with the shares through closing.
- The stock trading at ~$7.15–7.22 rather than $9.25 is the market pricing in deal-completion risk and the multi-year time value of the milestones.
- Milestone payouts stretch out 4 to 7 years post-closing, so “stick around” really means “stick around through closing, then potentially wait years.”
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This communication contains forward-looking statements that involve substantial risks and uncertainties, including statements regarding: the Merger; the prospective benefits of the Merger; the parties’ ability to satisfy the conditions to the consummation of the Merger and the expected timetable for the Merger; the anticipated occurrence, manner and timing of the closing of the Merger; potential milestone payment amounts and terms pursuant to the CVRs; AtaiBeckley’s product candidates and ongoing clinical and preclinical development; Lilly’s development of programs targeting treatment-resistant depression and mental health conditions; and the accounting treatment of the potential acquisition under GAAP and its potential impact on Lilly’s financial results and financial guidance. All statements other than statements of historical facts are forward-looking statements. The words “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “project,” “should,” “target,” “will,” “would” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. Any forward-looking statements are based on current beliefs and expectations, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and adversely from those set forth in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the possibility that AtaiBeckley’s shareholders may not approve the adoption of the Merger agreement; AtaiBeckley’s receipt of any competing offers or acquisition proposals; a failure to (or delay in) receiving the required regulatory clearances for the Merger; a condition to closing of the Merger may not be satisfied (or waived); the ability of each party to consummate the Merger; the closing of the Merger might be delayed or not occur at all; the diversion of management time and attention from ongoing business operations and opportunities; the response of competitors to the Merger; the effect of the Merger and the public announcement of the Merger on AtaiBeckley’s operations and its relationships with its suppliers, business partners, management and employees, including its ability to attract and retain key personnel; Lilly’s ability to successfully integrate AtaiBeckley and execute on the continued development of AtaiBeckley’s programs following the closing of the Merger; that all or any of the potential milestone payments pursuant to the CVRs will become payable on the terms described herein or at all; the outcome of any legal proceedings that could be instituted against the parties to the Merger; the risks inherent in drug research, development and commercialization; disruption in AtaiBeckley’s plans and operations attributable to the Merger; changes in AtaiBeckley’s business during the period between announcement and closing of the Merger; Lilly’s evaluation of the accounting treatment of the potential acquisition and its potential impact on its financial results and financial guidance; the effects of the Merger (or the announcement thereof) on AtaiBeckley’s stock price; relationships with key third parties or governmental entities; regulatory changes and developments; and the impact of global macroeconomic conditions, including trade and other global disputes and interruptions, including related to tariffs, trade protection measures, and similar restrictions. For further discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties, see Lilly’s and AtaiBeckley’s periodic reports filed with the SEC. There can be no assurance that the Merger will in fact be consummated. All forward-looking statements in this communication are based on information available to Lilly and AtaiBeckley as of the date of this communication. Lilly and AtaiBeckley each expressly disclaim any obligation to publicly update or revise the forward-looking statements, except as required by law.
